Two economists studied California's billionaire tax. They reached wildly different conclusions

What happens in California could shape how America taxes the superrich. But will its billionaire tax fill state coffers — or drain them?

<img src='https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/default/strip/false/crop/4735x3157+0+0/resize/4735x3157!/quality/85/format/webp/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F05%2Fae%2F72c32e9e4280ab25ed64537115d5%2Fgettyimages-2261837536.jpg' alt='An attendee holds a sign before the start of a rally led by US Senator Bernie Sanders, Independent of Vermont, during the campaign kickoff for the California Billionaire Tax Act at The Wiltern in Los Angeles, February 18, 2026. Sanders is seeking the support of California voters for a November's ballot initiative of an emergency tax on billionaires to help the state's healthcare system. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images)'/><p>What happens in California could shape how America taxes the superrich. But will its billionaire tax fill state coffers — or drain them?</p><p>(Image credit: PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)</p><img src='https://media.npr.org/include/images/tracking/npr-rss-pixel.png?story=g-s1-151009' />